(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) June 16-22, 2012 Thoughts: The June 16-22 period is likely to feature widespread warmth. At the same time, there is a growing possibility that an unseasonably hot air mass could be heading eastward toward the end of the period, setting the stage for a hot final week of the month …
Jul 29
Long Range Weather Forecast (6/8 – 6/15/12)
(Blog written by Donald Sutherland) June 8-15, 2012 Thoughts: The second week of June could be shaping up as the coolest week relative to normal across parts of North America. Both the forecast MJO and the teleconnection analogs suggest that an area running from the Great Lakes region into central Canada could witness cool anomalies. …
Jul 29
Long Range Weather Forecast (Summer 2012)
(Blog written by Donald Sutherland) Summer 2012 Thoughts: Recent analogs have continued to suggest that odds somewhat favor the development of an El Niño during the summer. The fresh burst of westerlies out in the Pacific that has sent the SOI to -27 offers another hint, as El Niño events are typically preceded by bursts …
Jul 29
Long Range Weather Forecast (June 2012)
(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) June 2012 Forecast: Although past transitions to possible El Niño conditions have witnessed a chilly summer, it appears that the current transition will witness at least the first month of summer turning out warmer than normal across much of North America. Key Assumptions: • Neutral ENSO conditions are likely to …
Jul 29
Long Range Weather Forecast (6/1 – 6/7/12)
(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) With summer approaching, I’m starting a Summer 2012 thread. My summer thoughts will be posted toward the end of the week. This evening, I’ll post my thoughts for the first week in June. June 1-7, 2012 Thoughts: The pattern that appears likely to kick off the first week of Summer …