(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) August 2012 Forecast: The hot and dry summer of 2012 will go on. Key Assumptions: • A weak El Niño event will be underway in August • The AO will likely be somewhat positive • The PNA will likely be somewhat negative The top analog was 2006. The charts on …
Category: Written Blogs (JUL 2012 )
Aug 04
Long Range Weather Forecast (July 24 – 31, 2012)
(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) July 24-31, 2012 Thoughts: The GFS ensembles continue to suggest that the PNA could go strongly negative prior to the start of this period (values -1.00 or below). At the same time, the development of a possible El Niño event continues albeit on a gradual basis. As a result, one …
Aug 04
Long Range Weather Thoughts
(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) Some morning thoughts… 1. Yesterday, the Temple/Miller, TX automatic observation site recorded a temperature of 129°F (53.9°C). It remains to be seen whether this recording will be validated. What is more clear is that the focus of the heat has shifted to the Western Third of the U.S. and Canada. …
Aug 04
Long Range Weather Thoughts (July 16 – 23, 2012)
(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) July 16-23, 2012 Thoughts: Even as the heat is likely to ease back after this coming weekend, the respite may prove short-lived. The evolving pattern could lead to a new outbreak of heat during the third week of the month. Recent guidance has forecast a new trough to push into …
Aug 04
Long Range Weather Thoughts (Summer)
(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) While large portions of North America continue to suffer through extreme and even historic heat, a partial analysis based on the emerging El Niño (the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has now reached +0.6°C) suggests that blocking will be key to both Fall 2012 and Winter 2012-13 outcomes. El Niño events …