(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) July 16-23, 2012 Thoughts: Even as the heat is likely to ease back after this coming weekend, the respite may prove short-lived. The evolving pattern could lead to a new outbreak of heat during the third week of the month. Recent guidance has forecast a new trough to push into …

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(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) While large portions of North America continue to suffer through extreme and even historic heat, a partial analysis based on the emerging El Niño (the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has now reached +0.6°C) suggests that blocking will be key to both Fall 2012 and Winter 2012-13 outcomes. El Niño events …

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(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) Verfication: My June 2012 forecast (Message #6) was as follows: Although past transitions to possible El Niño conditions have witnessed a chilly summer, it appears that the current transition will witness at least the first month of summer turning out warmer than normal across much of North America. Key Assumptions: …

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(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) FWIW, it appears likely that the exceptional heat through the end of June boosted June 2012 to or above the 30th warmest June on record. Here’s a comparison of June 2012 vs. June 1971 (currently 30th warmest June). Areas of positive temperature departures denote areas where June 2012 was warmer …

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(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) Some quick morning thoughts… 1. The preliminary June data is in. The temperature anomalies for June 2012 much more closely resembled those of June 2002 than June 1976 or June 2009. 2. Earlier, the March-May temperature anomalies in the Arctic region were characterized by widespread warmth. The pattern was similar …

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