Philadelphia Area Weather Hazard Forecast (1/20 – 2/3/14)

Hi Everyone,

A bit late getting this package out, but finally its ready.  One of the new things you’ll see below is my risk table. Check below for details.  In terms of the weather expected this week.  Looks like we have a threat of snow on Tuesday.  So, we have a risk for wintry weather.  We have a system that will be diving down from Canada and bring a round of snow on Tuesday.  The clipper is expected to intensify Tuesday night as it moves away from the area.  There is a risk that this system could bring several inches of accumulation.  So, this system bears watching for now.  By tomorrow night, temperatures will begin fall to very cold levels and be below freezing for all of Tuesday.  So, once we get some snow on Tuesday, travel will become very slippery.  The snow is expected to be very powdery.  Plus, the wind will pick up Tuesday night, so wind chills could make it feel like its in the single digits at times.  Definitely keep up with the latest NWS forecasts on the winter weather threat.  In addition, we have a threat for excessive cold for all of this week.  Very cold air mass will build into all the Philadelphia Area from Canada.  The pattern right now has become very favorable for a very cold period, where temperatures won’t get above 32 degrees for many locations.  In fact Wednesday, temperatures may not get above 20 for most locations. Nighttime lows will likely drop to the single digits.  Also, expect winds to be on the breezy side, so we can expect some low wind chills at times.  Now, as we head into the longer range, we may see a moderation in temperatures.  Probably expect that as we head into early February.  

 

 

After check out these outlooks, check your local National Weather Service forecasts by clicking here. Just enter your zip code and you’ll be able to get the latest updates.   

 

ezweather.com’s Weather Hazard Forecasts

Southeastern Pennsylvania, Northeast Maryland, South Jersey, and Delaware
Issued: Sunday Evening, January 19th 
Forecast Valid: Mon, Jan 20 through Mon, Feb 3, 2014

 

1_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119
Weather Hazard Forecast Table Background: Forecast Confidence, Severity Index
Weather Hazard Forecast Details
5_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_201401194_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_201401196_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119
Check out the supporting data for my forecasts.  You can get an idea of how I assess this period for hazardous weather.  
Upper Air Pattern Precipitation
7_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20131229 8_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119 9_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119 10_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119
11_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119
 
Surface Weather 
Monday, January 20th  Tuesday, January 21st 
12_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119 13_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119 15_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119 16_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119
14_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119 17_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_2014019
Wednesday, January 22nd Friday, January 24th
18_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119 19_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119 21_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119 22_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119
20_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119 23_WXSRO_5_FCST_PHL_20140119

 

W

6 to 10 Day Weather Outlook 

1_WXLRO_610-1115_FCST_PHL_20140119 2_WXLRO_610-1115_FCST_PHL_20140119
Weather Hazard Forecast Table Background: Forecast Confidence, Severity Index
Check out the supporting data for my forecasts.  You can get an idea of how I assess this period for hazardous weather.  
Upper Air Pattern
3_WXLRO_610-1115_FCST_PHL_20140119 4_WXLRO_610-1115_FCST_PHL_20140119
Temperature Outlook
5_WXLRO_610-1115_FCST_PHL_20140119 6_WXLRO_610-814_FCST_PHL_20140119
Precipitation Total Outlook 
7_WXLRO_610-814_FCST_PHL_20140119 8_WXLRO_610-814_FCST_PHL_20140119

 

11 to 15 Day Weather Outlook  

 

9_WXLRO_610-1115_FCST_PHL_20140119 10_WXLRO_610-1115_FCST_PHL_20140119
Weather Hazard Forecast Table Background: Forecast Confidence, Severity Index
Check out the supporting data for my forecasts.  You can get an idea of how I assess this period for hazardous weather.  
Upper Air Pattern
11_WXLRO_610-1115_FCST_PHL_20140119 12_WXLRO_610-1115_FCST_PHL_20140119
Temperature Outlook 
13_WXLRO_610-1115_FCST_PHL_20131229 14_WXLRO_610-1115_FCST_PHL_20131229
Precipitation Total Outlook 
15_WXLRO_610-1115_FCST_PHL_20140119 17_WXLRO_610-1115_FCST_PHL_20140119

**********************************************************************************************************************************************  Background Information This type of forecast is high level and designed to help folks to plan for hazardous weather with a longer lead time.  So, these type of forecasts will aid anyone involved with Skywarn, Emergency Management and the Public. These forecasts are quick assessments and experimental.  The goal with this type of forecast is to to point out whether each period will be active or not.  In addition, these tables can be treated as a severe weather index level.      W