Sep 29

Weather Pattern Outlook for Sun, Sep 29th – Mon, Oct 14th

Good Sunday Morning,

Check out the latest pattern outlook below. 

Note: I’m using 00z Model run today for this update.  Also, it will be based on Zulu time.

Click on this great blog site for a variety of weather discussions. 

 

Climate Trends
Provided by HPRCC
2024 Temperature Anomalies 2024 Precipitation Total Anomalies
September Temperature Anomalies September Precipitation Anomalies
1 to 5 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Sunday, September 29th through Friday, October 4th 
500mb Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Fri, September 27th GEFS – 00z Sat, September 28th GEFS – 00z Sun, September 29th
EPS – 00z Fri, September 27th EPS – 00z Sat, September 28th EPS – 00z Sun, September 29th
 

 
1 to 5 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Sunday, September 29th through Friday, October 4th 
Surface Temperature Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Fri, September 27th GEFS – 00z Sat, September 28th GEFS – 00z Sun, September 29th
EPS – 00z Fri, September 27th EPS – 00z Sat, September 28th EPS – 00z Sun, September 29th


1 to 7 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Sunday, September 29th through Sunday, October 6th   
 
Precipitation Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Fri, September 27th GEFS – 00z Sat, September 28th GEFS – 00z Sun, September 29th
EPS – 00z Fri, September 27th EPS – 00z Sat, September 28th EPS – 00z Sun, September 29th
     
CIPS Analog Historical Guidance
– Short Range Guidance (36 to 120 Hours)
6 to 10 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Friday, October 4th through Wednesday, October 9th  
500mb Height Anomaly Plots
GEFS -00z Fri, September 27th GEFS – 00z Sat, September 28th GEFS – 00z Sun, September 29th
EPS – 00z Fri, September 27th EPS – 00z Sat, September 28th EPS – 00z Sun, September 29th
6 to 10 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Friday, October 4th through Wednesday, October 9th
Surface Temperature Anomaly Plots
GEFS -00z Fri, September 27th GEFS – 00z Sat, September 28th GEFS – 00z Sun, September 29th
EPS – 00z Fri, September 27th EPS – 00z Sat, September 28th EPS – 00z Sun, September 29th



6 to 12 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Friday, October 4th through Friday, October 11th  
Precipitation Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Fri, September 27th GEFS – 00z Sat, September 28th GEFS – 00z Sun, September 29th
EPS – 00z Fri, September 27th EPS – 00z Sat, September 28th EPS – 00z Sun, September 29th
6 to 10 Day Climate Prediction Center
Analog Forecast
Centered on Sunday, October 6th
500mb Anomaly Map Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook
6 to 10 Day Analogs 6 to 10 Day Temperature Analogs 6 to 10 Day Precipitation Analogs
Click here to view the Top 10 Analog List
CIPS Historical Analog Guidance
– Extended Range Guidance (168 to 312 Hours)
11 to 15 Day Model Ensemble Plots
Wednesday, October 9th though Monday, October 14th  
500mb Height Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Fri, September 27th GEFS – 00z Sat, September 28th GEFS – 00z Sun, September 29th
EPS – 00z Fri, September 27th EPS – 00z Sat, September 28th EPS – 00z Sun, September 29th
11 to 15 Day Model Ensemble Plots
Wednesday, October 9th though Monday, October 14th  
Surface Temperature Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Fri, September 27th GEFS – 00z Sat, September 28th GEFS – 00z Sun, September 29th
EPS – 00z Fri, September 27th EPS – 00z Sat, September 28th EPS – 00z Sun, September 29th
9 to 15 Day Model Ensemble Plots
Monday, October 7th though Monday, October 14th   
 
Precipitation Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Fri, September 27th GEFS – 00z Sat, September 28th GEFS – 00z Sun, September 29th
EPS – 00z Fri, September 27th EPS – 00z Sat, September 28th EPS – 00z Sun, September 29th
8 to 14 Day Climate Prediction Center
Analog Forecast
Centered on Wednesday, October 9th 
500mb Anomaly Map Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Analogs
Click here to view the Top 10 Analog List
CIPS Historical Analog Guidance
– Extended Range Guidance (168 to 312 Hours)
Background Information

  • Got some exciting news.  New plots have been added from Tropical Tidbits.com.  Levi Cohen has been super in maintaining his great website. So, there are new plots from the European Ensembles, especially for the 6 to 10 day and 11 to 15 Day.  So, there are more neat analyses to check out and you can check out what type of weather pattern will be forming over the US the next two weeks.
  • I’m very excited to bring you something new to the website here. For folks that really get into tracking the weather, I’ve setup a nice high level set of tables that will show ensembles of 5 day ranges.  Right now, I have some model trends generally with GFS, ECMWF for 1 to 5 days for upper air height anomalies and temperature anomalies.  For the 6 to 10, I”m using 3 model cycles for the GFS ensembles.  Only the current ECMWF ensembles is available to the public. Then the same approach for the GFS and Canadian Ensembles. In addition, I’ve added in the Climate Prediction Center’s analog forecasts for the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 days. The idea here is to see what general pattern is setting up across the US for each period.  Another great site I will add is CIPS. Its another great tool that is used in weather forecasting. CIPS is a historical analog guidance that the National Weather Service uses across the country. So, hopefully, you can use nice dashboard/table format and get an idea of how the future weather pattern is shaping up.
  • The surface and upper air model maps are provided by Levi Cowan and the Climate Prediction Center.