Sep 18

Weather Pattern Outlook for Mon, Sep 28th – Tue, Oct 3rd

Good Wednesday Evening,

Check out the latest pattern outlook below. 

Note: I’m using 12z Model run today for this update.

Click on this great blog site for a variety of weather discussions. 

 

Climate Trends
Provided by HPRCC
2024 Temperature Anomalies 2024 Precipitation Total Anomalies
August Temperature Anomalies August Precipitation Anomalies
1 to 5 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Wednesday, September 18th through Monday, September 23rd 
500mb Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th GEFS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th GEFS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
EPS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th EPS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th EPS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
 

 
1 to 5 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Wednesday, September 18th through Monday, September 23rd 
Surface Temperature Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th GEFS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th GEFS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
EPS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th EPS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th EPS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th


1 to 7 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Wednesday, September 18th through Wednesday, September 25th   
 
Precipitation Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th GEFS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th GEFS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
EPS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th EPS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th EPS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
     
CIPS Analog Historical Guidance
– Short Range Guidance (36 to 120 Hours)
6 to 10 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Monday, September 23rd through Saturday, September 28th  
500mb Height Anomaly Plots
GEFS -12z Mon, Sep 16th GEFS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th GEFS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
EPS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th EPS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th EPS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
6 to 10 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Monday, September 23rd through Saturday, September 28th
Surface Temperature Anomaly Plots
GEFS -12z Mon, Sep 16th GEFS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th GEFS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
EPS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th EPS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th EPS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th



6 to 12 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Monday, September 23rd through Monday, August 30th  
Precipitation Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th GEFS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th GEFS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
EPS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th EPS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th EPS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
6 to 10 Day Climate Prediction Center
Analog Forecast
Centered on Thursday, September 26th
500mb Anomaly Map Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook
6 to 10 Day Analogs 6 to 10 Day Temperature Analogs 6 to 10 Day Precipitation Analogs
Click here to view the Top 10 Analog List
CIPS Historical Analog Guidance
– Extended Range Guidance (168 to 312 Hours)
11 to 15 Day Model Ensemble Plots
Saturday, September 28th though Thursday, October 3rd 
500mb Height Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th GEFS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th GEFS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
EPS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th EPS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th EPS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
11 to 15 Day Model Ensemble Plots
Saturday, September 28th though Thursday, October 3rd 
Surface Temperature Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th GEFS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th GEFS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
EPS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th EPS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th EPS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
9 to 15 Day Model Ensemble Plots
Thursday, September 26th though Thursday, October 3rd   
 
Precipitation Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th GEFS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th GEFS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
EPS – 12z Mon, Sep 16th EPS – 12z Tue, Sep 17th EPS – 12z Wed, Sep 18th
8 to 14 Day Climate Prediction Center
Analog Forecast
Centered on Sunday, August 18th 
500mb Anomaly Map Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Analogs
Click here to view the Top 10 Analog List
CIPS Historical Analog Guidance
– Extended Range Guidance (168 to 312 Hours)
Background Information

  • Got some exciting news.  New plots have been added from Tropical Tidbits.com.  Levi Cohen has been super in maintaining his great website. So, there are new plots from the European Ensembles, especially for the 6 to 10 day and 11 to 15 Day.  So, there are more neat analyses to check out and you can check out what type of weather pattern will be forming over the US the next two weeks.
  • I’m very excited to bring you something new to the website here. For folks that really get into tracking the weather, I’ve setup a nice high level set of tables that will show ensembles of 5 day ranges.  Right now, I have some model trends generally with GFS, ECMWF for 1 to 5 days for upper air height anomalies and temperature anomalies.  For the 6 to 10, I”m using 3 model cycles for the GFS ensembles.  Only the current ECMWF ensembles is available to the public. Then the same approach for the GFS and Canadian Ensembles. In addition, I’ve added in the Climate Prediction Center’s analog forecasts for the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 days. The idea here is to see what general pattern is setting up across the US for each period.  Another great site I will add is CIPS. Its another great tool that is used in weather forecasting. CIPS is a historical analog guidance that the National Weather Service uses across the country. So, hopefully, you can use nice dashboard/table format and get an idea of how the future weather pattern is shaping up.
  • The surface and upper air model maps are provided by Levi Cowan and the Climate Prediction Center.