Jan 21

Weather Pattern Outlook for Tue, Jan 21st – Wed, Feb 5th

Good Tuesday Morning,

Check out the latest pattern outlook below. 

Note: For today, I’m using 00z Model run today for this update.  Also, it will be based on Zulu time.

Click on this great blog site for a variety of weather discussions. 

 

Climate Trends
Provided by HPRCC
2024 Temperature Anomalies 2024 Precipitation Total Anomalies
January Temperature Anomalies January Precipitation Anomalies
1 to 5 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Tuesday, January 21st through Sunday, January 26th
500mb Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th GEFS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th GEFS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
EPS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th EPS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th EPS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
 

 
1 to 5 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Tuesday, January 21st through Sunday, January 26th
Surface Temperature Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th GEFS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th GEFS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
EPS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th EPS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th EPS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st


1 to 7 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Tuesday, January 21st through Tuesday, January 28th
 
Precipitation Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th GEFS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th GEFS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
EPS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th EPS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th EPS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
     
CIPS Analog Historical Guidance
– Short Range Guidance (36 to 120 Hours)
6 to 10 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Sunday, January 26th through Friday, January 31st
500mb Height Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th GEFS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th GEFS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
EPS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th EPS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th EPS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
6 to 10 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Sunday, January 26th through Friday, January 31st
Surface Temperature Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th GEFS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th GEFS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
EPS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th EPS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th EPS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st



6 to 12 Day Model Ensemble Trend
Sunday, January 26th through Sunday, February 2nd
Precipitation Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th GEFS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th GEFS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
EPS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th EPS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th EPS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
6 to 10 Day Climate Prediction Center
Analog Forecast
Centered on Wednesday, January 29th
500mb Anomaly Map Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook
6 to 10 Day Analogs 6 to 10 Day Temperature Analogs 6 to 10 Day Precipitation Analogs
Click here to view the Top 10 Analog List
CIPS Historical Analog Guidance
– Extended Range Guidance (168 to 312 Hours)
11 to 15 Day Model Ensemble Plots
Friday, January 31st though Wednesday, February 5th
500mb Height Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th GEFS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th GEFS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
EPS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th EPS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th EPS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
11 to 15 Day Model Ensemble Plots
Friday, January 31st though Wednesday, February 5th
Surface Temperature Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th GEFS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th GEFS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
EPS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th EPS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th EPS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
9 to 15 Day Model Ensemble Plots
Wednesday, January 29th though Wednesday, February 5th
 
Precipitation Anomaly Plots
GEFS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th GEFS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th GEFS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
EPS – 00z Sun, Jan 19th EPS – 00z Mon, Jan 20th EPS – 00z Tue, Jan 21st
8 to 14 Day Climate Prediction Center
Analog Forecast
Centered on Saturday, February 2nd
500mb Anomaly Map Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Analogs
Click here to view the Top 10 Analog List
CIPS Historical Analog Guidance
– Extended Range Guidance (168 to 312 Hours)
Background Information

  • Got some exciting news.  New plots have been added from Tropical Tidbits.com.  Levi Cohen has been super in maintaining his great website. So, there are new plots from the European Ensembles, especially for the 6 to 10 day and 11 to 15 Day.  So, there are more neat analyses to check out and you can check out what type of weather pattern will be forming over the US the next two weeks.
  • I’m very excited to bring you something new to the website here. For folks that really get into tracking the weather, I’ve setup a nice high level set of tables that will show ensembles of 5 day ranges.  Right now, I have some model trends generally with GFS, ECMWF for 1 to 5 days for upper air height anomalies and temperature anomalies.  For the 6 to 10, I”m using 3 model cycles for the GFS ensembles.  Only the current ECMWF ensembles is available to the public. Then the same approach for the GFS and Canadian Ensembles. In addition, I’ve added in the Climate Prediction Center’s analog forecasts for the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 days. The idea here is to see what general pattern is setting up across the US for each period.  Another great site I will add is CIPS. Its another great tool that is used in weather forecasting. CIPS is a historical analog guidance that the National Weather Service uses across the country. So, hopefully, you can use nice dashboard/table format and get an idea of how the future weather pattern is shaping up.
  • The surface and upper air model maps are provided by Levi Cowan and the Climate Prediction Center.