Jan 08

U.S. Hazards Outlook (Mon, Jan 13th through Fri, Jan 24th)

Hi Everyone,

Check out the latest US Hazards Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center below. 

 

US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS Weather Prediction Center and Climate Prediction Center
College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Friday, January 10, 2024

Day 3 – 7 Outlook  Day 8 – 14 Outlook 

 

US Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook

Issued by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

Valid Monday, January 13th through Friday, January 17th  

 …Overview…

Latest guidance continues to show a rapid transition to a very amplified upper pattern by next weekend, consisting of an eastern Pacific through (and perhaps beyond) Alaska ridge and a deepening trough most likely aligned from over/north of Hudson Bay through the Plains and Southwest U.S. This evolution should bring much colder air and some snow south into the Rockies and Plains by next weekend, while a leading cold front spreads precipitation over the eastern third to half of the country around the end of the week. This may include heavy rainfall over parts of the South. Ahead of this transition as of midweek, guidance is still trying to figure out details of energy that should consolidate into an upper low southwest of California (beneath an upper high briefly extending into the Northwest) and then open up/eject inland as flow to the north amplifies. Meanwhile the last in a series of central-eastern U.S. shortwaves (during a chilly period over the East) should cross the East Coast by early Friday. Most of the country should be dry Wednesday-Thursday aside from some snow in the Great Lakes/central Appalachians and a little snow starting to reach the far northern Rockies.

Click here for the rest of the forecast discussion 

 

 

US Weather Hazards

Issued by the Climate Prediction Center

8 to 14 Day Outlook Summary 

Valid Saturday, January 18th through Friday, January 24th 

Synopsis: A mid-level low is forecast to develop and intrude into the contiguous U.S. early in week-2. This feature will progress east over time triggering the next round of potential hazardous weather. The associated frontal system enhances the likelihood for multiple hazards including heavy precipitation in the South, snow from the Rockies into the Northeast, and high winds across the western and central CONUS. Behind this system, increased risk for much below normal temperatures are anticipated to return across most areas along and east of the Rocky Mountains.

 

Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks
Temperature Hazards Precipitation Hazards Wind Hazards
Snow Hazards
 
Weather Hazards

  • Moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Central and Southern Appalachians, the upper Ohio and upper Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast, Wed-Thu, Jan 15-16.
  • Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic, Wed-Sat, Jan 15-18.
  • Slight risk of heavy snow for downwind portions of Lakes Erie and Ontario, Wed-Fri, Jan 15-17.
  • Slight risk for periods of high winds for portions of Southern California, Wed-Fri, Jan 15-17.
  • Slight risk for periods of high winds for much of the interior Mountain West, Wed-Tue, Jan 15-21.
  • Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, southern Plains, Tennessee Valley, Sat-Mon, Jan 18-20.
  • Slight risk of heavy snow for portions of the Central Rockies, Central and Northern Plains, Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes, Sat-Mon, Jan 18-20.
  • Slight risk of high winds for portions of the Central and Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes, Sat-Mon, Jan 18-20.
  • Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for parts of the Northwest, Rockies, and Central and Northern Plains, Sun-Tue, Jan 19-21.
  • Slight risk for periods of high winds for northwestern Mainland Alaska, Wed-Thu, Jan 15-16.
  • Slight risk for periods of gap winds across parts of southern Mainland Alaska, Fri-Mon, Jan 17-20.

For the full discussion, click here

  

6 to 10 Day Maps
6 to 10 Day - Temperatures 6 to 10 Day - Precipitation
6 to 10 Day Analog Year Maps
500mb Map Temperatures Precipitation
6 to 10 Day Analogs 6 to 10 Day Temperature Analogs 6 to 10 Day Precipitation Analogs

8 to 14 Day Maps
8 to 14 Day - Temperatures 8 to 14 Day - Precipitation
8 to 14 Day Analog Year Maps
500mb Temperature Precipitation
8 to 14 Day Analogs 8 to 14 Day Temperature Analogs 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Analogs

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Climate Prediction Center

Background

Vision

  • An informed society preparing for and responding to climate variations and their impacts

 

Mission 

  • CPC delivers real-time products and information that predict and describe climate variations on timescales from weeks to years thereby promoting effective management of climate risk and a climate-resilient society.

 

Expert Assessments 

  • Climate Prediction Center (CPC) meteorologists and oceanographers review climate and weather observations and data along with model results; assess their meaning, significance, and current status; and likely future climate impacts. Their findings are issued as assessments, advisories, special outlook discussions, and bulletins.

 

U.S Hazards Outlook

  • From Monday-Friday, the CPC issues an outlook of weather- and climate-related hazards to the United States for the next three to fourteen days.