Hi Everyone,
Going to start again Donald Sutherland’s Winter Weather Column. I’ll continue to update this periodically the next several months.
Check out the latest post from Don.
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A Winter Nightmare from the Past
Posted: December 23rd @ 8:53am
For the past seven days, a growing amount of light has swept across Menorahs everywhere. For some snow lovers, this growing light perhaps symbolized what the ensembles and operational guidance had been promising: a big pattern change ahead with numerous snowfall opportunities.
Now, as Hanukkah is concluding and Christmas lies just ahead, a large part of the East will be swept with moderate to heavy rains, gusty winds, and unseasonably mild temperatures. Dreams of a white Christmas will be washed away by the rain, not to mention the tears of heartbroken snow geese in the face of this cruel warmth.
But there is even worse. The latest teleconnection forecasts offer only more misery. Forecasts for a deeply negative EPO have been withdrawn almost as suddenly as they had first appeared. The PNA is now forecast to creep into negative territory.
What’s that immense tower in the distance? It dwarfs even the world’s tallest structure. Look closer. That’s the latest GFS ensemble forecast for the Arctic Oscillation. One member even takes the AO toward +5 during the first week in January.
Perhaps, the vendors can offer some relief. Unfortunately, little is to be found there. DT has now ominously highlighted the strongly negative QBO (though he has not written off the winter). JB has moved from discussions of coming cold and deep snows, skipping the changing climate, straight to the “Beast of Bakersfield.”
While many at AmericanWx may not be old enough to recall it, there once was an El Niño winter that started bold and cold in November. It did so as the QBO was falling steadily. Surely, festive scenes of sleigh rides, skiing, and snowmobiling, not to mention snow-clogged streets and snow-covered fences lay just ahead.
At least that’s what many might have thought. But then, December witnessed a dramatic turnaround. December was as warm as November was cold.
Was this the end?
In January, the QBO continued to fall. The El Niño persisted. A 13-day period of blockiness managed to develop, but the blocking was not very severe. Afterward, the AO returned to its predominantly positive state.
Once the book was closed on meteorological winter, it proved to be a book snow lovers wished had never been written. Where was Sony Pictures to pull that book prematurely? In the end, December had foretold the rest of the winter story with stunning prescience. January and February were defined by continued widespread warmth.
As the calendar advanced toward spring, winter finally tried to awaken from its all too long slumber. Days were now growing longer and winter’s opportunities were dwindling fast. The East Coast witnessed cold anomalies and above normal March snowfall. But that late and regionally-limited rally could not salvage what had once appeared to have been a promising winter back in November. For those who are interested, that winter was 1991-92.
Are we in the early stages of a replay of this nightmare? Certainly, the latest AO forecasts are extremely frightening. For now, though, it’s still a little premature to make that call and I’m not yet ready to give up on the still young winter of 2014-15. But one can no longer deny the reality that a warm winter has now rudely barged into the realm of possibility. Still, the El Niño this time around is weaker than it was in 1991-92. Perhaps, that detail will prove crucial in the longer-run.
To all, enjoy the rest of Hanukkah, have a great Christmas and New Year.