Hi Everyone,
Here’s Donald Sutherland’s Winter Weather Column for February. A lot more good posts to check out.
In case you want to go back and read over his posts from previous months check out the following
– November
– December
– January
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Posted Monday, February 17 @ 7:11 PM
A few quick evening thoughts…
1. With a -1° reading this morning, Detroit registered its 13th subzero reading of the winter. That is the most since winter 1978-79, which also had 13 subzero mornings. With another impressive cold shot possible around or after 2/23 in the Great Lakes region, at least another such reading is a distinct possibility.
2. With 4.0″ snow so far, Chicago’s seasonal figure has risen to 66.9″ Winter 2013-14 now ranks as the 5th snowiest winter on record in Chicago, just below winter 1966-67, which had 68.4″ snow.
3. After the system now impacting the Midwest produces some accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions, a moderation will occur. The moderation will be temporary. An Arctic cold front in the 2/23-24 timeframe could produce some snow, along with bringing back much colder than normal regions.
4. Additional accumulations of snow are likely over the next few weeks in many of the cities that already have seen 2013-14 rank among the 5-10 snowiest winters. Top 2 or 3 outcomes in such cities as Detroit, New York, Philadelphia appear possible, if not likely. Columbus, OH is within reach of its snowiest winter on record, needing just 3.9″ to set a new record.
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Posted Sunday, February 16 @ 8:28 AM
The final data for the 1/25-2/15 period is posted below:
In the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, Chicago and Detroit will likely pick up at least several inches of additional accumulation. Some snowfall with accumulations is also possible in such cities as Philadelphia, Newark, New York, Providence, and Boston, among others.
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Posted Saturday, February 15 @ 8:21 AM
Updated table for the January 25-February 15, 2014 Period…
The period has proved exceptionally snowy from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England region. Almost in fitting fashion, some of the region will be impacted by a moderate to significant snowfall. Boston should easily surpass 50″ snowfall for the winter and there’s a small chance it could reach 60″ by the time the storm departs. Providence should reach 40″ seasonal snowfall.
Next week will see a period of moderation overspread the region. Temperatures in some of the area could surge to 50° or above in New York City and even Boston at the height of the moderation and 60° or above in Washington, DC.
However, it increasingly looks like this period of moderation will be temporary as occurred during January. If so, cold could return toward the end of March. At the same time, the subtropical jet might again be growing a little more active. That might create renewed opportunities for snowfall. This is still far out, but it is one plausible scenario of how things might evolve.
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Posted Thursday, February 13 @ 12:00 PM
Mid-Day Thoughts…
1. The ongoing snowstorm has pushed Philadelphia, New York City, and Islip past 50″ for the winter. Baltimore has now surpassed 25″, so the 1/25-2/15 period is delivering in a big way on the potential at which the forecast pattern was hinting. Detroit, Islip, New York City, and Newark have all received 20″ or more snow during this timeframe.
2. The storm may yet deliver another round of very heavy snow as it pushes away from the region this evening and tonight. The 12z GFS brings almost 1″ qpf to Poughkeepsie overnight. Exact details still remain to be determined.
3. An additional clipper system may blow up as it moves offshore bringing additional accumulations to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England areas on Friday night through Saturday night.
4. Moderation appears on course afterward. But it remains to be seen whether this moderation is a pause before winter returns for another appearance. The operational GFS turns cold in the extended range, so the return of cold and opportunities for snowfall is very much on the table as February closes/March commences.
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Posted Wednesday, February 12 @ 7:55 AM
Morning thoughts…
Perhaps the most disruptive and highest-impact storm of the winter is now impacting the South. Atlanta and Charleston are receiving a significant dose of freezing rain. Snow had commenced falling in Columbia, SC.
Farther north ahead of the storm, Boston had a reading of 8°, which was that city’s coldest February reading since February 5, 2009 when the temperature fell to 8°. New York City had a low temperature of 13°, its coldest February reading since February 5, 2009 when the mercury fell to 12°. Philadelphia had a low temperature of 12°, its coldest February reading since February 11, 2008 when the temperature reached 11°.
Both Detroit and Chicago registered yet another subzero low temperature. Detroit has had 2 such readings this month, the most in February since 2011 when there were also 2. For the winter, that city has had 12 such low temperatures, the most since 1993-94 when there were also 12.
Chicago recorded its 7th subzero low of February, the most in February since 2007 when there were 8. For the winter, Chicago has had 18 subzero minimum temperatures. The last winter with at least as many was 1984-85 with 18.
Occasionally harsh winters have ended with a significant storm that preceded the breakdown in the predominant pattern. The ensemble guidance has been persistent that moderation lies ahead and will be spreading across the CONUS beginning next week. The last 7-10 days of February could wind up milder than normal in many areas that have seen persistent cold.
For now, it is too soon to know whether this moderation will mark the beginning of the end of winter 2013-14 or whether the winter will produce additional cold and snow prior to spring’s taking hold.
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Posted Monday, February 10 @ 12:26 PM
Updated figures for the 1/25-2/15/2014 period:
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Posted Monday, February 10 @ 10:00 AM
Morning thoughts…
Now that the great “Facebook Blizzard of ’14” has departed after depositing a general 1″-3″ of powdery snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, including a “paralyzing” 2.7″ in Philadelphia, the focus can turn to a genuine winter storm threat for later this week. Several thoughts:
1. This will be a subtropical jet steam system, and the ECMWF usually does very well with those systems, including the potential for phasing. Hence, a significant storm will likely develop and then move northward.
2. The timing and location of phasing and exact track will be important. But right now, at least a moderate snowfall appears likely across much of the Mid-Atlantic region and into southern New England. The potential exists for Richmond and Washington, DC, which are currently running 2.4″ and 2.3″ below normal respectively to move above normal. The potential for snow and ice will likely extend farther south, so the Southeast might well experience a meaningful winter weather impact.
3. In the longer-range, moderation still appears likely to spread into the East beginning around 2/20 +/- a few days. The closing 7-10 days of February should wind up milder than normal in a large part of the CONUS.
4. Out in the Pacific, the easterly trade winds have weakened. That could allow for ENSO Region 3.4, which currently has an anomaly of -0.7°C, to begin to warm. The warming that had occurred in ENSO Region 1+2 argues that there is a risk of an El Niño for next winter. In fact, if one looks at the Region 3.4 anomaly, it should be noted that both 1997 and 2009 had comparable or greater cool anomalies at this point in time. While a 1997-98 super El Niño event appears very unlikely at this point in time, something closer to 2009-10 can’t be ruled out. For now, the modeling is still at a very low skill range, including the superior-performing statistical guidance.
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Posted Sunday, February 9 @ 6:43 PM
Updated table for the January 25-February 15, 2014 period:
Chicago has now surpassed 60″ seasonal snowfall and Detroit has reached 70.0″. In addition, light snow this evening should add to seasonal figures in a number of the eastern cities with perhaps Philadelphia and Islip doing best among the cities being tracked.
All said, the period has proved snowy. Another opportunity for snow lies ahead later this week.
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Posted Friday, February 7 @ 4:19 AM
Updated table for the January 25-February 15, 2014 Timeframe…
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Posted Friday, February 7 @ 8:42 AM
Morning thoughts…
1. Yesterday, the temperature fell to -1° in St. Louis. That was the third subzero low temperature of the winter there and the most since winter 1996-97 when there were 6. Yesterday’s low temperature was also that city’s first subzero reading in February since February 4, 1996 when the temperature bottomed out at -7°.
2. So far, St. Louis has picked up 4.7″ snow this month, bringing its seasonal figure to 26.1″. As noted previously in this thread, I believe it is likely that St. Louis will reach or exceed 30″ for winter 2013-14.
3. A clipper system will likely impact parts of the East Coast on Sunday night and Monday. The 6z NAM and 3z SREF guidance blew it up into a moderate event. The 9z SREF backed down. Nevertheless, this brief fluctuation in qpf may be hinting that there is uncertainty in terms of how energetic the clipper is (upstream depictions differed on the runs) and that bears watching. For now, a lighter event remains the more likely scenario, but there is some probability (perhaps 1-in-4?) of a moderate event in a winter that has seen a number of clippers overperform with the guidance picking up on that outcome in the final 24-48 hours preceding the event.
4. The guidance is becoming more definitive about an EPO+ pattern developing in the long-range. It remains less certain with respect to Atlantic blocking. As the wavelengths shorten, the latter could become more important for eastern North America. Before then, the guidance related to the EPO argues for moderation setting in probably around 2/20 +/- a few days. Whether or not it would be preceded by a moderate or significant snowfall for some part of the East remains to be seen.
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Posted Thursday, February 6 @ 8:50 AM
February 16-22, 2014 Thoughts…
Following what has already distinguished itself as a snowy period from St. Louis eastward to Philadelphia and Boston, the period will likely start cold. The potential for additional snow could exist. By that time, Boston will likely have 50″ or more seasonal snowfall and Detroit will likely be near or above 70″ seasonal snowfall. However, there remain persistent hints on some of the guidance that moderation could try to unfold during the latter part of the period and perhaps persist through the closing 7-10 days of February, perhaps as the pattern then reloads for the first half of March.
Below are temperature anomalies from the teleconnection cases having a reasonable match to the last 30 days, as well as the GFS ensembles centered on 2/20 0z:
Areas in which there are agreement are the Southwest, western Canada, and much of the East. The area of big disagreement concerns the placement of warmth around the Hudson Bay/James Bay (GFS ensembles) and the larger expanse of warmth across eastern Canada and New England (teleconnection cases).
Given the combination of persistence and larger set of teleconnection cases, I believe the warmth shown on the smaller set of teleconnection cases is probably overdone.
My thoughts are as follows:
Western half of the CONUS, including Southwest and Plains States: Warmer than normal and much warmer than normal in the Southwest
Pacific Northwest: Somewhat below normal to near normal
Canada (except for the Hudson Bay/James Bay region and northwestern Ontario and northwestern Quebec): Colder than normal; the exceptions will likely be warmer than normal
Eastern half of the CONUS except for the Southeast and Gulf Coast: Colder than normal
Gulf Coast and Southeast: Warmer than normal
It should be noted that milder air will likely spread into the East toward the end of the period. The above anomalies are for the period as a whole.
Finally, among the teleconnection cases was 2/19/1979, which coincided with the President’s Day snowstorm. When one looks at February, the breakdown of teleconnections for KU snowstorms since 1950 is:
AO-/PNA-: 28% (example: 2/17-19/1979) — Accounted for 80% of KU snowstorms after 2/15
AO-/PNA+: 50% (example: 2/15-18/2003)
AO+/PNA-: 11% (example 2/10-12/1994)
AO+/PNA+: 11% (example 2/2-5/1961)
78% of February KU snowstorms commenced when the AO was negative
Some ensemble members hint at a period of AO- approaching and into the start of the 2/16-22 period. So while nothing is assured, that might be a time to watch for the possible larger storm, especially as the current snowy pattern nears and end and perhaps into the start of the 2/16-22 timeframe. Finally, after mid-month, the AO-/PNA- combination becomes the more favorable one for KU snowstorms as the wavelengths are starting to shorten.
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Posted Wednesday, February 5 @ 9:50 PM
Today, Detroit picked up another 7.6″ snow. That brought the seasonal figure to 67.9″, which is 7th highest on record. The last winter with more snow was 2010-11 when 69.1″ fell.
Chicago picked up 5.7″ snow bringing its seasonal figure to 59.6″. That is the highest figure there since 2007-08 when 60.3″ fell. It is also the 8th highest on record.
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Posted Wednesday, February 5 @ 11:58 AM
Late morning thoughts…
1. The pattern continues to deliver in terms of snowfall for the areas that have seen above normal snowfall (Midwest to the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England). That is likely to continue to be the case for the remainder of the period through 2/15. There remains the possibility of a large-scale storm prior to the breakdown of the current pattern.
2. Guidance continues to hint that the closing 7-10 days of February could see a more zonal flow develop, leading to a milder regime across much of the CONUS. If so, the 2/16-22 timeframe could witness the development of milder weather during the latter part of that timeframe.
3. With wavelengths shortening as the calendar advances toward spring, the potential exists that renewed troughing could try to develop in eastern North America afterward. But that’s way out and a lot can change.
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Posted Wednesday, February 5 @ 9:59 AM
Morning update on the 1/25-2/15 Period…
Highlights:
1. Detroit reached 60″ seasonal snowfall for the first time since winter 2010-11.
2. New York City reached 40″ seasonal snowfall for the first time since winter 2010-11.
3. Newark reached 40″ seasonal snowfall for the first time since winter 2010-11.
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Posted Tuesday, February 4 @ 10:56 AM
Morning thoughts…
1. The January 25-February 15 period is proving snowy for the areas that have received above average snowfall this winter, with Boston so far having the least snowfall during this period. The storm tonight into tomorrow should provide at least several inches of snow there and the possibility of 6″ or more exists. Here’s how the aforementioned timeframe has worked out so far:
2. For some time, the ensemble and model guidance has been signaling the possibility of a potential large-scale event along the East Coast for the 2/9-10 timeframe. Details have differed on a run-to-run basis as should be expected from this far out.
3. With respect to KU-type potential, most February KU storms have occurred when the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been negative. The latest guidance indicates that the AO will likely go negative prior to and during the 2/9-10 timeframe.
4. Out in the Plains States, St. Louis has so far picked up 21.5″ snowfall for the winter. I still believe that odds favor seasonal snowfall reaching 30″ before the winter is finished.
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Posted Monday, February 3 @ 11:45 PM
Evening thoughts…
1. The pattern is king so to speak. Much of what was written in #541 from back on January 13 and #626 holds: the January 25-February 15 period should see above normal snowfall in the areas that have already seen it. The potential also exists that Washington and Baltimore could join the snowfall harvest.
2. The period has already been productive in terms of snowfall in Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, and New York, but not yet for Boston. That will change tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.
3. In the extended range, one should not latch onto the details or precise qpf amounts. Both are subject to change. What is important is that the guidance continues to insist on one or two moderate or big qpf events beyond tomorrow night’s storm. Each of those events has the potential to produce snowfall, even if there is some liquid precipitation involved.
4. With a lot of cold air retaining its grip over Canada, the possibility of one more bout of severe cold e.g., the kind of air mass that could send temperatures back into the single digits in such cities as New York and Baltimore and below zero in Chicago and Detroit remains on the table.
5. There continue to be hints that the EPO could go positive down the road leading to a period of moderation, perhaps over the last 7-10 days of February, but uncertainty persists. Whether or not that outcome, if it materializes, would be temporary remains to be seen.
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Posted Monday, February 3 @ 9:04 AM
Morning Thoughts: The January 25-February 15 Period Continues to Deliver…
Back on January 13, the teleconnection cases and GFS objective analogs were highlighting the potential for above normal snowfall during the January 25-February 15 timeframe. At that time, I had noted in #541:
The second aspect is that the pattern appears increasingly likely to become snowier from the Great Lakes region eastward to the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Both among the teleconnection cases and GFS ensemble’s objective analogs in recent days, one finds a number of dates that were fairly close to moderate or sizable snowfalls. Those dates have included late January 1961, late January 2003, and just after mid-January 2005. In short, it increasingly appears that the pattern evolution should result in the above-noted areas seeing above normal snowfall for the January 25 through February 15 period.
Through February 2, snowfall beginning on January 25 was as follows for select cities:
Boston: 0.1″
Chicago: 6.8″
Detroit: 13.7″
New York City: 1.8″
Philadelphia: 3.4″
Today, a snowstorm is blanketing parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. If one examines the daily snowfall records for select cities, one finds a number of dates from 1961 (one of the teleconnection and objective analog cases):
With today’s snowfall, New York City should easily reach 30″ seasonal snowfall. Philadelphia should reach 40″. More storms with at least some accumulations of snow lie ahead. A candidate for the biggest storm might exist in the February 8-10 timeframe, but details will need to be worked out. The potential exists and it has been signaled on the ensembles for some time. A number of winters that featured severe cold have culminated with a blockbuster snowstorm, so historic climatology may lend some degree of support to the ensembles. Of course, there are no guarantees, but at least potential is on the table.
Overall, by the time the January 25-February 15 period is finished, it would not surprise me if Philadelphia were well above 40″ seasonal snowfall, New York City was near or above 40″, and Boston was near or perhaps even above 50″ seasonal snowfall. The potential also exists that meaningful snows could make it to Baltimore and Washington, D.C., too.
If so, this winter will provide another example where winter tipped its proverbial hand in December when Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia all received 8″ or more snowfall for the month and confirmation with an early January snowfall. The seasonal snowfall for those cities following such cases is below:
All in all, what promises to be a fun period for winter weather lovers continues to unfold in wintry fashion.
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Posted Sunday, February 2 @ 6:52 AM
Morning thoughts…
1. After yesterday’s snowfall of 3.8″, Chicago’s seasonal total has reached 52.6″. Detroit’s 4.1″ snowfall brought its seasonal figure to 59.9″.
2. I have little change in my thinking. By the end of Wednesday at the latest, Boston and Philadelphia will likely have surpassed 40″ seasonal snowfall, New York City will likely have reached or exceeded 30″, and Detroit should be above 60″.
3. Monday’s system should focus its heaviest snows across eastern Pennsylvania and central and perhaps northern New Jersey. While this event will likely not be a blockbuster, a solid 4″-8″ accumulation with locally higher amounts appears possible in the area cited.
4. Wednesday’s storm should have more moisture. However, it currently appears that the focus of heaviest snow from that storm will cover southeast New York (north of NYC and its nearby suburbs) across parts of southern and central New England (away from the coast). The storm is sufficiently in the future that details could change somewhat.
5. In the long-range, there are hints that an EPO+ pattern could be unfolding as the EPO ridge retrogrades well away from where it has resided most of the winter. If so, the last 7-10 days of February might wind up on the mild side for much of the CONUS except perhaps the northern tier. Much of Canada could remain cold. Right now, that’s far enough into the future that there remains substantial uncertainty, but the possibility is noted as it has been a recurrent theme on some of the recent guidance.
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Posted Saturday, February 1 @ 8:28 PM
Evening thoughts…
1. The idea that the January 25-February 15 period would likely see above normal snowfall in the areas that have already received it and perhaps a wider area continues to look reasonable.
2. With today’s snowfall, Detroit has reached 59.3″ for the season. Snowfall totals to date include 33.5″ at Boston, 28.3″ at New York City, and 33.5″ at Boston.
3. Two storms (Monday and Wednesday) should add to those accumulations, even as the snow may yield to a soaking rain in the Mid-Atlantic and possibly southern New England areas. By the end of Wednesday at the latest, Boston and Philadelphia will likely have surpassed 40″ seasonal snowfall, New York City will likely have reached or exceeded 30″, and Detroit should be above 60″.