Philadelphia Weather Hazard Outlook (Thu, June 13 – Mon, June 17)

A Good Evening Everyone,

All eyes are on Thursday’s potential severe weather and flooding event. I’ll have one more update on what I think the type of risk level we’ll see on Thursday as I turn over the official outlooks starting tomorrow.  I’ll have the special updates on this site as this situation unfolds tomorrow.  The best thing everyone can do is be ready.

So, what do we know at this hour.  The system is just starting to develop over the Midwest where there is a higher risk fro severe weather, which means damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.  In addition to those hazards, flooding is another major threat.  Tonight will be a very active one for this area, which will spill over into Ohio, West Virginia and Western Pennsylvania late tonight before weakening. 

As this system heads east and the real crux of this forecast will be where the low tracks and its associated warm and cold front.  If the low tracks further south, then that means a lesser risk of the severe weather across our region, but if the low tracks just enough north, then we face a widespread severe weather event.  Right now, I still think this low will track just enough north, where most of the Philadelphia will face a major severe weather threat.  So, my thoughts haven’t changed from yesterday.

Aside from the severe weather threat, is the risk for flooding.  Right now, I’m going with a high risk for significant flooding.  Basically means, 2 to 4 inches could fall, which is what the NWS is thinking for tomorrow.  They even note in their briefing, that some areas may receive high amounts, especially north of the Philadelphia Area.  Given that we had a lot of rain over the weekend and on Monday, it won’t take much to see areas flood again.  

The other facet to this forecast will be how the low will deepen as it heads to the coast.  Believe it or not, this system will develop into a Nor’easter and bring heavy rain and high winds  for portions of Northeastern PA, NJ and up into eastern New England.

All and all, a very active day.  Finally, when does the worst hit.. The worst part of the event looks to be  the afternoon versus the morning.  The estimated time of the severe weather would be between 2 and 6pm.  So, big impacts will be felt with PM rush hour and air travel.  Expect quite a few delays later tomorrow as the weather goes down hill.  With all this said, please plan accordingly keep checking back on the latest forecasts.

Finally, I may have the 5 Day outlook updated, but obviously the focus is for tomorrow.  The good news is that once we get past this event, the rest of the outlook appears to be quiet.   

EZ Weather.com

Philadelphia Area

5 Day Weather Hazard Outlook

• Southeast Pennsylvania, South Jersey, Northeast Maryland, Delaware

Weather Hazard Forecast Details

Zone Legend Reference (Click on the Zone Name to View Map)

• Southeast Pennsylvania, South Jersey, Northeast Maryland, Delaware

Disclaimer Information

• These is specialized forecasts and are experimental.
• The goal of this product is to aid Skywarn, Emergency Management, and Public Officials to provide them with extended lead time to prepare for Significant Hazardous Weather.
• Please refer to official outlooks and forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, Weather Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center and the National Hurricane Center.

• Storm Prediction Center
• National Weather Service Forecast Office in Mount Holly, NJ