(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) While large portions of North America continue to suffer through extreme and even historic heat, a partial analysis based on the emerging El Niño (the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has now reached +0.6°C) suggests that blocking will be key to both Fall 2012 and Winter 2012-13 outcomes. El Niño events …
August 2012 archive
Aug 04
Long Range Weather Forecast Verification (June 2012)
(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) Verfication: My June 2012 forecast (Message #6) was as follows: Although past transitions to possible El Niño conditions have witnessed a chilly summer, it appears that the current transition will witness at least the first month of summer turning out warmer than normal across much of North America. Key Assumptions: …
Aug 04
Long Range Weather Thoughts
(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) FWIW, it appears likely that the exceptional heat through the end of June boosted June 2012 to or above the 30th warmest June on record. Here’s a comparison of June 2012 vs. June 1971 (currently 30th warmest June). Areas of positive temperature departures denote areas where June 2012 was warmer …
Aug 04
Long Weather Thoughts
(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) Some quick morning thoughts… 1. The preliminary June data is in. The temperature anomalies for June 2012 much more closely resembled those of June 2002 than June 1976 or June 2009. 2. Earlier, the March-May temperature anomalies in the Arctic region were characterized by widespread warmth. The pattern was similar …
Aug 04
Record Heat
(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) Highlights from today’s incredible heat: Athens, GA: 107° (tied the June record of 107°) Atlanta: 103° (broke the June record of 102°) Baltimore: 103° (missed the daily/monthly record of 105°) Charlotte: 104° (broke the June record of 103°) Columbia, SC: 109° (broke the June record of 107°) Memphis: 102° (broke …