(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland)
July 8-15, 2012 Thoughts:
With the exception of the West Coast, warmth is likely to predominate across North America.
The charts below are as follows:
Left: The composite temperature anomalies for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of +0.20°C to +0.80°C, a PNA of -0.50 to +0.50, and an AO of -0.50 to +0.50 for North America.
Right: NAEFS (July 6-12, 2012 forecast)
Given the teleconnection analogs, guidance, and observed decadal trend in temperatures, I believe the July 8-15 period will likely feature the following conditions:
– Central Plains, Great Lakes region and Southeastern States: Possibly much above normal readings.
– West Coast: Near normal to perhaps a little cooler than normal
– Remainder of North America: Warmer than normal.
It should be noted that 2002 remained prominent in the weekly analog pool. At the same time, 2009, which had been fading, was not present. Among the analog years were 1953, 1963, 1966, 1991, 2002, and 2005. All of those years experienced heat in late June (currently ongoing) and also a period of intense heat during the last 7-10 days of July. Hence, even as the warmth could ease for a time, the month could end on another warm note, particularly in the eastern third to eastern half of the U.S. and parts of southern Canada.