Hi Everyone,
Here’s another addition of my Weather Model and Analog trends for the period Monday, April 16th through Friday, April 27th. This blog will have the same format as the Weather Pattern Review. What you’ll notice is that I put together several flash videos, where you can view a series of slides. The player below provides offers similar features such as YouTube videos. So, you have the freedom to pause the video and examine the analysis. Its probably a good idea to enlarge the video to see the entire presentation. So, let’s get started.
Upper Air
In this section, we’ll take a look at the projected upper air pattern for the next two weeks. What I did here was try doing an analog forecast. This technique can provide clues to long range forecasting. This technique is something extra versus just looking at what the models may say.
Two Week Analog Forecast
The first analysis is one that I like thank Donald Sutherland for helping me out. He posts over at American Weather.com on medium range weather forecasts. He’s a weather hobbysts, but I can almost say, he’s a meteorologist. If you ever read his posts, I highly recommend you do. He is one of many that provide great posts on long range forecasts. So, the idea here and you’ll see this in the next several section is to come up with analog years based upon several key indices. The Climate Prediction Center is one I access the data from.
Predicted Indice values for this time period
– NAO between 0 and +0.50
– PNA between -1.00 and +0.25
– AO between -0.25 and +1.25
– ENSO between -0.4 and -1.0
So, I was able to build a composite on what maybe the predicted upper air.
-Experimental 500mb Upper Air Height Anomaly Map Forecast
Next, let’s check out the model ensemble trends. Model ensembles are becoming a very good tool in long range forecasting. Think of ensemble models as one that is a sum of individual model runs. The GFS and the Euro have their set of individual runs. One of the fewest sites out there and one that is great to check out is Allan Huffman’s website. The ones he provides, which I really like to use are the 6 to 10 and 11 to 15 day range.
Next, check out the flash videos. The two below model run trends for the 6 to 10 and 11 to 15 Day. On the right side of the video player, you can click on the arrow facing left (Related Videos).
6 to 10 Day Model Ensemble Trend (first video displayed)
– ECMWF (European) vs GFS (American) Upper Air Anomaly Maps
11 to 15 Day Model Ensemble Trend (see second video in Related Videos list in player)
– Operational GFS vs GFS Ensemble Upper Air Anomaly Maps
[hdplay playlistid=7 ]
Temperatures
In this section, we’ll take a look at projected temperatures for the next two weeks.
Two Week Analog Forecast
As in the previous section, let’s take a look at the next two weeks.
– Experimental Temperature Anomaly Analog Forecast
6 to 10 Day Model Ensemble Trend (first video displayed)
– ECMWF (European) vs GFS (American) 850mb Temperature Anomaly Maps
– GFS Surface Temperature Anomaly Maps
8 to 14 Day Model Ensemble Trend (see second video in Related Videos list player)
– GFS Surface Temperature Anomaly Maps
– NAEFS Temperature Probability Below or Above Average Maps
[hdplay playlistid=9 ]
Precipitation
In this section, we’ll take a look at projected precipitation totals for the next two weeks.
Two Week Analog Forecast
Pretty much the same approach here. Just a caution here, this is experimental and one that will be worked on.
–Experimental Precipitation Total Anomaly Analog Forecast
6 to 10 Day Ensemble Model Trend (See video displayed below)
– GFS Operational vs GFS Ensemble Precipitation Total Maps
– NAEFS Precipitation Probability Below or Above Average Maps
See second video in Related Videos list in player
11 to 15 Day Model Ensemble Trend
– GFS Operational vs GFS Ensemble Precipitation Total Day Maps
8 to 14 Day Model Ensemble Trend
– NAEFS Ensemble Precipitation Probability Maps
[hdplay playlistid=8 ]
Please feel free to check out my website at www.ezweather.com. My site has an abundant amount of weather links on Forecasts, Climate Data, Model Data, Discussion and Resources. It is a site that contains vast amount of information. So, definitely check it out.