Good Evening Everyone,
Here’s another edition of my Weather Pattern Review. Obviously the big story of the day was what happen in Dallas, TX. The media captured several destructive tornadoes. The video of these tornadoes really show you the power and the trail of destruction they leave. So, no question, the Spring of 2012 continues to be a very costly one with the amount of severe weather and its only the beginning of April.
Below are the analyses I put together the last couple of days and welcome you to check them out. Plus, I’ll provide some insight what some of the maps mean.
So far we have seen very costly severe weather in 2012, record breaking warmth for much of the US and the Pacific Northwest, Southern Plains, and Lower Missippi Valley receiving too much rainfall and getting flooding. New areas that haven’t gotten a lot of precipitation is over California and the East Coast, especially over Florida. Finally, it appears that La Nina continues to fade away.. We’ll have to see when El Nino will kick in. Obviously, a major player to the tropical season. Well, that will be a discussion for another time.
Upper Air Trends
Here are some of the basics I have on this analyses. The 500mb anomaly map is an analysis that’s taking a look from 18,000 feet above the ground. These anomaly maps help identify tendencies how ridges (high pressure) and troughs (low pressure formed. Think of ridges as regions of stable weather (i.e., dry, cold or hot regions) and troughs as regions of active weather (i.e., wet and stormy). The shades of yellow to dark reds indicate ridging while shades of blue indicate troughs. Once you see the ridges and troughs, you can begin to outline the placement of the jet stream.
Notice the impressive ridge over the central and eastern US. Very impressive ridging took place west of Alaska and the opposite end Spain. Pacific Northwest was the only area that the trough setup during this period. Just a very impressive warm period for the Eastern half of the US.
– 500mb Upper Air Height Anomaly Map (Thu, Mar 1 – Sat, Mar 31)
A very early view of the upper air pattern for the Spring of 2012.
– 500mb Upper Air Height Anomaly Map (Tue, Mar 20 – Sat, Mar 31)
Surface, Upper Air, and Storm Report Trends
Check out these images below. Note the correlation on what we saw with the upper maps and now the surface maps. For the Storm Prediction Center maps, I sketched in the jet stream.
– Sea Level Pressure Anomaly Map (Thu, Mar 1 – Sat, Mar 31)
Notice how busy its been for severe weather. One of the key players has been the effect on La Nina. La Nina right now is fading, but still has some effect on the amount of severe weather we are seeing, especially with tornadoes. Looks like the Eastern half of the US has received a lot of severe weather. Notice the position of the jet stream and where the storm reports were located.
– SPC Storm Report with Jet Stream Overlay (Thu, Mar 1 – Tue, Mar 27)
Temperatures Trends
The analysis below are anomaly maps. I really like to use these analyses to show me a signal or trend over the past several weeks and months. What you will see from the maps I put together was how above average its been for the past couple months.
The theme here has been the record warmth. The past week really shows the peak of the mild to warm weather. Let’s say the first map for record warmth is so widespread. This really was the peak of the warm weather. Close to 1000 records being recorded the past week.
– Record Warmth (Sun, Mar 25 – Sun, Apr 2)
Not much in the way of record cold. The West Coast only had a few. Looks like record warmth won in this department.
– Record Cold (Sun, Mar 25 – Sun, Apr 2)
The next two maps really how the depth of the overall above average temperatures for high and lows. When you go from the 30 to 90 day, you can see all that way above average temperatures shrink a bit.
– 30 Day Mean Anomalies (Wed, Feb 29 – Fri, Mar 30, 2012)
– 90 Day Mean Anomalies (Sat, Dec 31, 2011 – Fri, Mar 30, 2012)
Precipitation Trends
Finally, the last batch of images will show you precipitation trends. So, what do we have her..
Looks like the Western US had a fair amount of reports.
– Record Rainfall and Snowfall Reports (Sun, Mar 25 – Sun, Apr 2)
Portions of the Pacific Northwest and Lower Mississippi Valley continue to be an area that has been susceptible excessive rainfall and flooding. These areas have a higher risk for flooding. Definitely areas to keep an eye on.
– River and Lake Flood Stages (Sun, April 1)
Two areas to keep an eye are the Pacific Northwest and Lower Mississippi Valley. Seems the pattern has been favoring these locations to be the recipient of systems bringing plenty precipitation. Obviously the ground can’t take anymore rainfall, so flooding is a concern.
– 30 Day Mean Total Anomalies (Thu, Mar 1 – Fri, Mar 30)
An interesting trend is one along the East Coast. It will be interesting to see if this spring will be a dry one for these areas. If the ground is very dry, the tendency as you go into the summer, the better chance for heat. So, something to watch as we go deeper into spring.
– 90 Day Mean Total Anomalies (Sun, Jan 1 – Fri, Mar 30)
Pretty much the same I wrote last time. Notice how dry its getting over in California and East Coast. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.
– Year Mean Total Anomalies (Sun, Jan 1 – Sat, Mar 31, 2012)
Right now, California, Georgia, and Florida will need at least 6 to 10 inches of precipitation to end the drought. Looks like Florida is the driest.
– Precip Need to End Drought (Week Ending March 24)
Please feel free to check out my website at www.ezweather.com. My site has an abundant amount of weather links on Forecasts, Climate Data, Model Data, Discussion and Resources. It is a site that contains vast amount of information. So, definitely check it out.