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Mar 30

Weather Model and Analog Trends (Mon, Apr 2 – Fri, Apr 13, 2012)

Hi Everyone,

I’m very excited to bring you the Weather Model and Analog Trends blog. As I did in the blog back on Tuesday, this one will take an extensive look into the next two weeks.  The idea here is to show a past image, analog map, and a series of model runs that are animated gifs.  The idea is to give one a sense of what the next two weeks hold for the US.  What type of pattern in terms of where will the trough or ridge setup, who’s going to receive below or above average temperatures and precipitation.  What clues do we see in terms of hazardous weather.

One of the most fascinating parts in this blog is the attempt to use a technique in long range forecasting and that is analog maps.  What years in the past could the models be hinting at.  Obviously, its very challenging, but also very exciting, because they can provide big clues and help with seeing if the models are on the right path.  So, let’s get started..

Since I’m a bit short on time, I’ll be listing the images only.  In the future, I’ll be able to provide some thoughts, but wanted to get this out tonight with the images…

For reference, below are the Week 1 and Week 2 periods
*Week 1: Mon, Apr 2 through Sun, Apr 8
*Week 2: Mon, Apr 9 through Fri, Apr 13

Upper Air
Still Images
- Initial 500mb Map (Sun, Mar 25)
-Experimental 500mb Upper Air Height Anomaly Map Forecast (Entire Period)
Animated Slides
- Week 1: Euro Ensemble vs GFS Ensemble 6 to 10 Day Maps
- Week 2: Operational GFS vs GFS Ensemble 11 to 15 Day Maps

Temperatures
Still Images
- Past Temperature Anomaly Map (7 Day Mean)
- Experimental Temperature Anomaly Analog Foreacst (Entire Period)
Animated Slides
-Week 1: Euro Ensemble vs GFS Ensemble 6 to 10 Day Ensemble 850mb Anomaly Maps
- Week 1: GFS Ensemble 6 to 10 Day Surface Anomaly Maps
- Week 2: GFS Ensemble 8 to 14 Day Surface Anomaly Maps
- Week 2: NAEFS Ensemble 8 to 14 Day Probability Maps

Precipitation
Still Images
- Past Precipitation Total Anomalies Map (7 Day Mean)
- Experimental Precipitation Total Anomaly Analog Forecast (Entire Period)
Animated Slides
- Week1: GFS Operational vs GFS Ensemble 6 to 10 Day Total Maps
- Week 1: NAEFS Ensemble 6 to 10 Day Probability Maps
- Week 2: GFS Operational vs GFS Ensemble 11 to 15 Day Maps
- Week 2: NAEFS Ensemble 8 to 14 Day Probability Maps

Please feel free to check out my website at www.ezweather.com. My site has an abundant amount of weather links on Forecasts, Climate Data, Model Data, Discussion and Resources. It is a site that contains vast amount of information. So, definitely check it out.

 

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