Good Evening Everyone,
I’m very excited to share with you a very interesting blog. Starting on Tuesdays I will be putting a blog together to show you some very interesting analyses that provides insight into the past weather pattern. Typically, whenever I try to put a forecast together, I like to try to get an understanding of the weather pattern by looking over climate data. Today, we have so much weather data to look over that it can get very overwhelming. So, the key is to break things down into sections. So, we’ll look over over Upper, Surface, Temperatures and Precipitation Total trends. For each section, I’ll provide some brief notes.
Upper Air Trends
Some of the basics about the 500mb anomaly map.. Its a view from 18,000 feet above the ground. It helps me identify the jet stream, although you can look at 250 or 300mb maps for that. But its an analyses for tendencies how ridges (high pressure) and troughs (low pressure formed. Think of ridges as regions of stable weather (i.e., dry, cold or hot) and troughs as regions of active weather (i.e., wet and stormy). The shades of yellow to dark reds indicate ridging while shades of blue indicate troughs. These maps really show the lack of winter weather across the US. Now as we transition into spring we still see the general pattern.
- 500mb Upper Air Height Anomaly Map (Thu, Mar 1 – Fri, Mar 16)
- 500mb Upper Air Height Anomaly Map (Wed, Feb 1 – Wed, Feb 29)
- 500mb Upper Air Height Anomaly Map (Tue, Dec 20 – Thu, Mar 16)
Surface, Upper Air, and Storm Report Trends
Check out these images below. Note the coorelation on what we saw with the upper maps and now the surface maps. For the Storm Prediction Center maps, I sketch in the jet stream. Notice how busy its been for severe weather. One of the key players has been the effect on La Nina.
- Sea Level Pressure Anomaly Map (Wed, Feb 1 – Wed, Feb 29)
- SPC Storm Report with Jet Stream Overlay (Wed, Feb 1 – Wed, Feb 29)
- Sea Level Pressure Anomaly Map (Thu, Mar 1 – Fri, Mar 16)
- SPC Storm Report with Jet Stream Overlay (Thu, Mar 1 – Fri, Mar 16)
The anlyses below are anomaly maps. I really like to use these analyses to show me a signal or trend over the past several weeks and months. What you will see from the maps I put together was how above average its been for the past couple months. This year’s winter season has been a mild one. Just looking at these maps, there’s not doubt its been impressive mild. Just check out how warm last week was. Over a 1000 record high temperatures were recorded last week..
- Record Warmth (Mon, Mar 12 – Mon, Mar 20)
- Record Cold (Mon, Mar 12 – Mon, Mar 20)
- 30 Day Mean Anomalies (Thu, Feb 16, 2011 – Sat, Mar 17, 2012)
- 90 Day Mean Anomalies (Sun, Dec 18 – Sat, Mar 17)
Finally, the last batch of images will show you precipitation trends. Notice here and the prior sections, I like to work from the past week to several months back. You’ll notice I like to look over the River and Lake Flood stages. If the models are forecasting more rain for these areas, the high the risk for flooding. Just one of the many analyses you can take a look at….
- Record Rainfall and Snowfall Reports (Mon, Mar 12 – Mon, Mar 20)
- River and Lake Flood Stages (Sun, Mar 19)
- 30 Day Mean Total Anomalies (Sat, Feb 18 – Sun, Feb 18)
- 90 Day Mean Total Anomalies (Tue, Dec 20 – Sun, Mar 18)
- Year Mean Total Anomalies (Sat, Jan 1 - Sun, Dec 25, 2011)
- Precip Need to End Drought (Week Ending March 10)
Please feel free to check out my website at www.ezweather.com. My site has an abundant amount of weather links on Forecasts, Climate Data, Model Data, Discussion and Resources. It is a site that contains vast amount of information. So, definitely check it out.